We predict the Republicans will control the Senate

The Outlook

DEM - 49 | GOP - 51

(gray states are independents who caucus with Senate Democrats | unshaded states do not hold Senate elections this year)

States Flipped From the Last Election

Montana flips from Jon Tester (D) to Tim Sheehy (R)

West Virginia flips from Joe Manchin (D) to Jim Justice (R)

Key Races to Watch

1. Montana - Leans R

Incumbent: Jon Tester (D)

Challenger: Tim Sheehy (R)

2. Ohio - Tilts D

Incumbent: Sherrod Brown (D)

Challenger: Bernie Moreno (R)

3. Michigan - Leans D

Incumbent Party Nominee: Elissa Slotkin (D)

Challenger Party Nominee: Mike Rogers (R)

4. Texas - Leans R

Incumbent: Ted Cruz (R)

Challenger: Colin Allred (D)

Why we think Republicans will win:

Better Environment

POINT ONE

Republicans are known in recent years to field controversial candidates who detract from the campaign. This year, though, their most important candidates in Montana, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania have made a better impression on voters. Furthermore, Democrats are in a tough position of defending more seats, even if many of them have incumbents. Democrats have incumbents in deep red states like West Virginia and Ohio. Because this is a presidential year, more voters are likely to vote down ballot, resulting in an easier shot for Senate Republicans to take back control.

Matched Spending

POINT TWO

Republican Senate candidates have stepped up their ability to raise money. With changing campaign finance laws, individuals who can spend more money on airwaves get the name recognition necessary to win elections. Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania and Tim Sheehy in Montana have deep pockets to fund expensive Senate campaigns. Given that most of the vulnerable Senate races are in Democratic seats, Republicans can use their money to remain on the offense in a few concentrated states. They only need two seats to flip for them to regain control.