We predict Kamala Harris will win the Presidency

The Prediction

HARRIS (D) - 292 | TRUMP (R) - 246


States Flipped From 2020 - 2024

Arizona flips from Biden (D) to Trump (R)

Key States to Watch

1. Pennsylvania - Leans D

2. Michigan - Leans D

3. Wisconsin - Leans D

4. Georgia - Tilts D

5. Arizona - Tilts R

6. Iowa - Leans R*

* Although we think Trump will likely win Iowa, we think it is important to look at voter trends there in light of recent polling.

Why we think Kamala Harris will win:

Return to Stability

POINT ONE

Many voters in 2020 chose Joe Biden because they were fed up with the social unrest and pandemic misery surrounding Trump. Four years later, inflation has raised the cost of living, illegal immigration spiked, and two regional wars exploded. In spite of these facts, the United States is settling down. The Fed is expected to cut rates, border arrests are down, and Israel is at the cusp of a ceasefire. These factors—along with Biden’s impressive legislative record—mean voters will want to stick with the same guard.

A Risky Alternative

POINT TWO

Donald Trump is a very polarizing figure. That helps him attract many Rust Belt voters who normally do not vote in elections. However, for the remaining undecided voters he needs, they find his contrast too polarizing. Voters are fearful of Project 2025, a plan backed by Trump’s allies that will reshape the government and, in the eyes of moderate voters, damage the institution. The continued unrest around his candidacy, including an assassination attempt, compels voters to reconsider how he would impact America.