We predict the Republicans will have more Governors
The Prediction
GOP - 27 | DEM - 23
(unshaded states do not hold Governor elections this year)
States Flipped From The Last Election
None
Key Race to Watch
New Hampshire - Leans R
Incumbent Party Nominee: Kelly Ayotte (R)
Challenger Party Nominee: Joyce Craig (D)
Why we think Republicans will win:
Urban Problems
POINT ONE
Today's high profile nature of crime, particularly in urban cores, has been a focal point in the litany of problems that cities face after the pandemic. Companies are reluctant to fully reinstate unpopular work from office requirements. Thus, there is a massive surplus of office space, affecting tax revenues for cities. With less cash, cities cannot provide services that make their centers thrive, resulting in a death loop. Because Democrats are currently running cities like Seattle, swing voters are looking to punish them.
The Electoral Calculus
POINT TWO
Democrats are already at a disadvantage in this election. There are few opportunities for the party to expand, with the exception of New Hampshire. In New Hampshire, though, Democrats are fighting over their preferred candidate whilst Republicans are unifying around former US Senator Kelly Ayotte. Meanwhile, Democrats are locked in a tight race in North Carolina, a state that has not voted for a Democrat president since 2008.