The Census Reapportionment
The United States takes a census every decade. Not only does this Census decide where funding should go for specific States and demographic changes, but the Census provides vital information needed for the U.S. House of Representatives. In the bicameral Legislative Branch, the Senate and House are split in different ways. The Senate prioritizes smaller populated States, with two Senators from every State. Meanwhile, the House helps larger populated States with proportional amounts of Congresspeople. Population changes, and so does the amount of seats each State gets every decade, hence a census.
Redistricting in the 2020 cycle could not be more critical for Democrats and Republicans. With politics being divided now more than several decades, the power of drawing maps that correspond with the number of seats allocated is immense, shaping politics for the next decade. Thus, many individuals were ecstatic to see how many seats each State would get, released on April 26th, 2021.
The reapportionment of House seats may not seem that important, as evidenced by the news cycle on that day. However, behind the scenes, the reveal of how many seats each State gets kicks off a long fight for redrawing the House maps meant for the 2022, 2024, 2026, 2028, and 2030 elections.
How Seats Are Redrawn Every Decade:
Many States are prone to losing or gaining one or several House seats. Thus, a redrawing of the State maps has to occur to fit that new seat in. With States that do not gain or lose seats, this process has evolved, taking part in redrawing their maps for political purposes. In recent decades, redistricting has been politicized because of who controls redistricting. Currently, most States allocate the power of redistricting to State Legislatures, which are controlled by the same parties who occupy some of those seats. Thus, whoever has control in State Government is likely to redraw the map so that Federal House seats can favor them in future elections.
The process of redrawing maps to one’s advantage has been coined as gerrymandering. In some cases, gerrymandering of the House maps is unconstitutional. For drawers that take race into account, that is Federally unconstitutional and considered racial gerrymandering. These rules, though, are often the exception rather than the norm.
This gaping hole is compounded by the fact that Democrats are at a considerable disadvantage for drawing maps compared to Republicans. Many Democratic State Legislatures a decade ago decided to take upon “the higher role” by allocating redistricting to bipartisan and independent commissions, thus eliminating gerrymandering. Republicans did not follow, however. Today, Democrats only control the drawing of 75 seats, while Republicans control around 182 seats. That colossal deficit gives Republicans the opportunity to tip the balance and influence House elections for years to come. That statement has frightened Democrats, which sets off one of the most contentious years for redistricting since its inception.
The Changes in the House Between 2010 and 2020
The U.S. Census reported on which States will lose a seat and which States will gain seats. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia will all lose one seat. Those seats will be given to Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon, with each having one new seat. Texas will gain two House seats. Thus, more seats have shifted over to Republican control.
The Sun Belt has caused much of the growth that has resulted in seat losses and gains. Four States that gained seats are *somewhat* within the Sun Belt: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. Meanwhile, all States besides California that lost a seat were within the Rust Belt region. This trend follows with the domestic migration from the Midwest and Northeast to the South.
The specific changes that are happening in each State’s Congressional delegations, with some States losing a seat, a few gaining a seat, and Texas gaining two seats (Source: U.S. Census Bureau).
Impact on Redistricting
The changes between 2010 and 2020 seat allocations were much more muted this decade than other decades. However, that fact does not refute the very contentious and nutty process redistricting will be this year. Due to the pandemic, the U.S. Census published late, which translates to delays for State Legislatures and commissions that need to redraw the maps, resulting in an eventual frenzy for the incumbent Representatives settling into their new (or removed) seats. This process usually results in a conundrum, but with the pandemic and America’s polarizing State, this year’s redistricting will turn out chaotic.
Democrats are already putting up a fight against Republicans in a bid to make redrawing maps as fair as possible. After the U.S. Census announced the House counts, the National Redistricting Action Fund, allied with the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, started asking the Courts in Louisiana, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania to prepare their maps if Democrats and Republicans cannot agree on one. There is a divided Government in those three States, which means that Republicans and Democrats control different parts of the three sectors (Governor’s mansion, Senate, and House). Consequently, gridlock is very likely to occur in those three States, and a map would not produce. There are more States, though, that will most likely result in the Courts drawing a map.
States Where Democrats Have Redistricting Control
Democrats do not control that many seats. They do, however, control some key areas, including Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, Illinois, Maryland, and New York (the two other States Democrats control have all Democratic representatives).
In Oregon, Democrats will gain a seat to play around with. Oregon Democrats were planning to take advantage of this new gain by cementing the seats they already have and continuing to pack the one Republican representative from Oregon. This packing and cracking would have been difficult, however. Democrats have most of their vote share from Portland, a city that is directly bordering Washington. Thus, Democrats somehow would have to have five of the six seats touch Portland to safely win all of them, no easy task when the city is in the shape of a semicircle rather than a circle. Democrats, though, have given up this privilege. Republicans in the Oregon State Legislature have been derailing voting on bills and slowed down crucial legislation meant to help Oregon.
Consequently, Oregon Democrats decided to create a bipartisan commission of an equal number of Republicans and Democrats for redistricting. Not only would this prevent Democrats from gerrymandering a precious seat in response to nationwide Republican gerrymanders, but this commission could also have Republicans gain a seat because of the already unproportional map. Thus, Oregon is turning more into a lost cause for Democrats.
In Nevada, Democrats do not have much of an opportunity to take seats away from Republicans. There is only one Republican seat out of the four Nevada House seats, and even through gerrymandering, there is no way Democrats can secure four seats. What Democrats can do, though, is solidify the partisanship of the three seats it has. Two of the three Democratic seats are competitive, rated at D+1 and R+2 according to Cook’s Political Voting Index. Democrats can make all three seats D+5. Otherwise, there is no counter-gerrymandering Democrats have.
For New Mexico and Maryland, there is a slight opportunity for Democrats to start flipping Republican seats through gerrymandering. New Mexico has two Democratic seats and one Republican seat. New Mexico Democrats could crack Albuquerque, its primary voting center, to stretch to all three districts. Thus, Democrats can easily win all three seats with a double-digit lead. For Maryland, while the incredibly gerrymandered the State in 2010, they can flip the final remaining Republican seat in the 2020 session, Maryland’s 1st CD. This opportunity would present two flips for Democrats.
If Democrats want to counter as much gerrymandering as possible, they should look to Illinois and New York. These two States command 43 House seats and can be shifted to help Democrats. Currently, Illinois has 13 Democrats and 5 Republicans. That margin could easily convert to a margin of 14 Democrats and 3 Republicans. Democrats would ax the Republican seat closest to Chicago, held by Adam Kinzinger (IL-16). From there, they can stretch out the Chicago House districts while making each of their seats stronger. The same thing can happen in New York, where a map of 19 Democrats and 8 Republicans can become 23 Democrats and 3 Republicans.
The States where Republicans, Democrats, and no one controls the redistricting process. Red - Republican Control, Blue - Democratic Control, Yellow - Divided Control or Politician Commission, Green - Independent Commission, and Gray - One District (Source: Wikimedia).
Republicans Bring On the Gerrymandering
Republicans are almost certainly likely to sway dozens upon dozens of seats in favor of their party. Because they control more than half the amount of seats needed to win the majority in the House, the GOP has a real opportunity to shut the door for Democrats just through gerrymandering. In Texas and Florida alone, Republicans control almost the same House seats as Democrats do in all of their controllable seats. Therefore, Republicans can easily surpass a challenge by Democrats and win in safe districts. In a future post, Partisan Satire will go more in-depth about these States in addition to the States listed above.
Should Democrats Gerrymander?
The TL;DR of gerrymandering for Republicans and Democrats is that Republicans can gerrymander in mass quantities, while any gerrymandering Democrats do will only soften the blow. There is no situation where the fullest gerrymandering Democrats can do, even going towards the illegal side, would fully counteract what Republicans will act upon. Thus, many Democrats are questioning whether to even gerrymander in the first place.
In Illinois, current Democratic Governor J. B. Pritzker is under pressure to follow through with his promise of vetoing any partisan map. While that statement vowing to veto a Democratic-skewed map was made in a time where Democrats had a wave year (2018), J. B. Pritzker will be up for reelection in 2022. Republicans can undoubtedly use a Pritzker signing a Democratic gerrymandered map as a soundbite for the 2022 election. Thus, J. B. Pritzker is trying to tip-toe around breaking promises and helping Democrats.
The other key opportunity for Democrats is in New York, but that opportunity may also be in jeopardy. The Governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, is under much fire for his governorship, which is in his third term. While Cuomo is not as pressured as Pritzker because he is in such a Democratic State, anything controversial that Cuomo partakes in could spell trouble for a fourth term. Currently, though, Governor Cuomo does not seem to pay attention to any of those fears. New York was one of the States who lost a House seat, but they were just 89 residents short of keeping their final seat and, as a byproduct, causing Minnesota to lose a seat. With margins that low, Cuomo has already stated that he would start looking into legal options to keep that 27th seat.
The Fight for the Midterms
These political shenanigans and constant legal fighting between the two parties will ultimately determine what happens in the House of Representatives for the 2022 election. Hundreds of legal challenges will ensure that this process will be an incredibly long one. Bills and legislation are already being put forth on the House floor to prevent their chamber from being bombarded by the redistricting chaos.
The For the People Act, as known as H.R. 1, has already passed the House. While the bill is mainly meant to decrease voter suppression nationally, there is a key provision that requires all States to hand the ability to redistrict over to independent commissions. By passing that Act, all of the cacophony behind redistricting would die down. Ironically, the bill in itself is a microcosm of the shenanigans that the bill ends. Republicans are already objecting to the bill because of the expansion of voter access and because they would no longer have access to gerrymandering. In addition, the lack of gerrymandering would open Democrats up to retaining the House in 2022, mainly because the current map is already heavily gerrymandered towards Republicans. Overall, passing the For the People Act is a whole challenge of its own league. The bill does not fall under the reconciliation process that allows a simple majority for a bill, meaning ten Republican Senators must affirm H.R. 1.
In essence, what does all of this process mean for the American people? For most Americans, this issue may seem trivial and a symptom of the “swamp culture” engulfing every bureaucratic tradition in government. That said, pay more attention. Redistricting has a long-term influence that shapes the politics America’s representatives embody, and those ideologies work to create broad change in the form of policies and partisan platitude. Thus, your voice is the proprietor that dictates how you want State Legislatures to draw maps and what vision of America you want for the next decade. You have used this voice to fill out the Census and to vote (or not) in the 2020 election. Keep using it because your voice is the only voice that is the formidable challenger to gerrymandering.
Additional Resources
Partisan Satire’s YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6TvXJZL297qzHVqQzjtqiQ
Dave Wasserman’s Twitter Account - https://twitter.com/Redistrict
References
[1] - https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2021/dec/2020-apportionment-map.html
[2] - https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/550439-first-redistricting-lawsuits-filed-by-democratic-group
[4] - https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/redistricting/2020-census-what-reapportionment-numbers-mean
[7] - https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/26/nyregion/new-york-census-congress.html
[9] - https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/1/text