The Future of the GOP

Feb 27

Devon Jiang

The GOP has never solidified how conservative they were willing to go. In 2021, the party faces another wave of identity issues as they realign themselves after Donald Trump’s presidency. Today is the second to final day of the Conservative Political Action Conference. Trump is the biggest speaker at the event. If we were to look back on history, it would tell us the Republican Party will become more conservative than in its current state.

In 1992, Bill Clinton made George H. W. Bush a one-term President. A lot of Republicans already had doubts about how Republican Bush Senior was. In comparison to Ronald Reagan, Bush was viewed by the party as an incredibly moderate New England country club Republican. Culturally, his personality reinforced the New England stereotypes. The policies were no different.

Bush tried to sideline stereotypes by promising not to raise taxes. That said, Bush inherited a huge budget deficit from his predecessor, Ronald Reagan. Consequently, he had to raise taxes, which meant partnering with Democrats to form a bill that most Republicans rejected. Throughout his Presidency, Bush coordinated with Democrats on a lot of legislation, much to the ire of Reagan-wing Republicans.

Even though the Bush administration faced unlucky challenges with budget deficits and a stubborn economy, ultimately, the failure to adequately address these issues meant that Republicans had decided on their party’s future. Since the 90s, Republicans elected in the House have voted increasingly conservative.

Then, you may ask why the aftermath of Trump’s presidency should not be like Bush’s? Trump also became a one-term President who created an economic decline. Three things block a reversal of the conservative trend from happening and accelerate the right-wing values of the Republican Party.

Trump had a sense that he could lose the 2020 election in August. As a result, Trump spent months before the 2020 Presidential Election creating myths about election fraud. This action is consistent with the Trump brand, but the message worked with his core base. After the 2020 elections, his base believed that the election was rigged for the opposing candidate. Many Republicans in the House and Senate went along with this idea, calling for revotes and removing individual absentee ballots. If the Republican leadership were to reverse course on ideology, they would admit to their base that the last four years of Trump caused a disaster.

Statements and lies about the 2020 election are only words. For those words to have power, a group must voice them. Trump’s fan base is as devoted to their leader as the Reagan coalition was to Ronald Reagan. As of the end of Trump’s presidency, the supporters support Trump because of his personality and ingenious marketing skills rather than his policies. As a result, Trump could state his goals, and his followers will always glue themselves to them like Tessica Brown gorilla gluing her hair.

These facts should not matter if Trump’s base is small, but Trump garnered the second-highest vote count for a Presidential candidate in history, only behind his opponent. Many people don’t believe in the influence Trump has over his fans. Looking at QAnon, though, will contradict their misguidance.

Q followers post and share conspiracy theories, including their messiah, Donald Trump. One of the views they believe involves the notion that John Roberts will swear in Trump as the 19th President of the US on March 4th, 2021. This idea will never happen, but we’ve seen how the brainwashed dig themselves into more in-depth conspiracy theories.

All of the cult factions apply to the future of the Republican Party. These groups are significant, which gives the Representatives in the GOP incentive to appease them for votes and political clout. Many of the leaders in these conspiracy theories are part of ultra-right-wing militias. Other right-wing Q followers are in the US Capitol, trying to push their party further right from the inside. While this group is large, they are not big enough to take up the bulk of the Republican Party, which is where Fox News comes in.

Fox News is the most recognizable media outlet in the United States. Millions of people watch the program for a slice of Carlson’s beef with Palm Springs over racist trees or Sean Hannity’s reporting on Hunter Biden’s laptop.

Millions trust Fox News, and many are Republicans. According to Pew Research Center, 43% trust Fox News, 65% of Republicans trust Fox News, and 60% of Republicans watch Fox News. Fox was not even in the top five watched channels for Democrats. With those numbers, though, Carlson and Hannity can shape their viewer’s ideologies more to the right.

These three factors that were mentioned: 2020 election lies, Trump’s loyal following, and the impact of Fox News, all contribute to a more conservative Republican Party. There is, no doubt, going to be a fight between moderate and Tea Party Republicans. The right-wing members, though, are going to win that battle.

For moderates and the establishment wing of the GOP, Trump’s base used to be containable. They had an opportunity to keep the status quo Republicans, who associated themselves with Mitt Romney (R-UT) or Pat Toomey (R-PA). Today, though, the moderate wing is outnumbered.

Mitch McConnell once, but briefly, sided with the minds of Senator Romney in denouncing Trump after the storming of the US Capitol. He called Trump’s role in the insurrection a “disgraceful dereliction of duty.” Today, though, Minority Leader McConnell says he would “absolutely” back Trump if he becomes the 2024 GOP nominee.

Unless something consequential that benefits the moderate GOP occurs between 2021 and 2024, CPAC 2021 will continue to reflect the direction of the Grand Old Party, and they might as well call themselves the Grand Trump Party.

Sources:

Diamond, Jeremy. "Trump: I Could 'Shoot Somebody and I Wouldn't Lose Voters.'"

Cable News Network, 24 Jan. 2016, www.cnn.com/2016/01/23/politics/

donald-trump-shoot-somebody-support/index.html. Accessed 26 Feb. 2021.

Zitser, Joshua. "National Guard on Standby in DC for March 4 — the Day QAnon

Followers Believe That Trump Will Become President." Business Insider, 20

Feb. 2021, www.businessinsider.com/

dc-national-guard-standby-for-potential-qanon-violence-march-4-2021-2.

Accessed 26 Feb. 2021.

Gramlich, John. "5 Facts about Fox News." Pew Research Center, 8 Apr. 2020,

www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/08/five-facts-about-fox-news/.

Accessed 26 Feb. 2021.